I was approached on LinkedIn by the Iran State newspaper Iran Daily to answer questions about the Islamic Republic and the region in the aftermath of Israel’s 12-day war in June. I agreed, with the proviso that I check my answers before publication. Iran Daily made only minor and acceptable revisions to my full-and-frank responses. The version below is my original reply.
1. How do you assess the trajectory of regional developments in the Middle East after Israel’s illegal attack on Iran and the twelve-day war?
Geopolitics in Iran and the Middle East are like a kaleidoscope. An episode such as Israel’s 12-day war on Iran in June will turn the situation, not just for the Islamic Republic and Israel but for other countries. And there will be other events that will also turn that kaleidoscope so we have new patterns of relationships.
From my perspective, Iran is in a weakened position, not just because of the war but also because of developments throughout the region since October 7, 2023. Hamas’ mass killing inside Israel on that day, followed by two years of Israel’s mass killing inside Gaza, interacted with climactic events in other countries.
More, here.
