A new FAO and OECD report forecasts a dramatic shift in the global agricultural landscape over the next decade. China, previously a powerhouse of agricultural consumption growth, is expected to take a backseat due to a slowing population and economic engine.
This opens the door for a surge in demand from India, Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa, fueled by burgeoning populations and rising affluence.
The report underscores the critical need to bridge the vast productivity gap between low- and middle-income countries. Strategies to boost domestic food production and improve farmer livelihoods are paramount.
The analysis also emphasizes the importance of well-functioning agricultural markets and minimizing food waste along the entire supply chain.
On the production front, the report predicts that growth in crop yields will primarily stem from increased efficiency on existing farmland, leading to a positive environmental impact with a decrease in agriculture’s greenhouse gas footprint.
However, the report cautions that significant productivity gaps are likely to persist in certain regions, posing challenges for food security and farm incomes.
Looking at trade, the report forecasts an increase in the total volume of agricultural commodities traded internationally.
This growth will be driven by a shift towards net importing regions like India and Southeast Asia to meet their rising consumption needs.
While the report predicts a slight decline in global food prices over the next decade, it cautions that this may not necessarily translate to lower prices for consumers at the grocery store.
Finally, the report delves into the potential benefits of cutting food loss and waste in half by 2030. This ambitious goal could lead to a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions across the globe, with positive impacts for all income levels.
The report highlights the potential for this approach to improve food security, particularly in low-income countries.
