Brazil Stronger Favourites, 8 Teams Nearly In Last-16

With the first 16 World Cup matches played, three teams – Brazil, Netherlands and Spain – now have at least a 90% chance of reaching the knockout phase according to the latest predictions from Nielsen’s Gracenote. Another five – England, France, Ecuador, Belgium and Portugal – have between an 80% and 90% chance of progressing to the knockout phase. Brazil has improved their chance of winning the World Cup from 20% to 24% and is followed by Spain and the Netherlands, both on a 9% chance. The potential second-round ties are also beginning to take shape.

The big changes to our pre-tournament forecast are that Saudi Arabia and Japan have joined the most likely 16 teams to progress to the knockout phase, replacing Mexico and Germany respectively. Argentina has moved to the other side of the draw as Saudi Arabia is now the most likely Group C winner after their shock victory against the 1978 and 1986 world champions. In Group B, IR Iran and USA had a roughly equal chance of making it to the last 16 before the World Cup began but the USA are now favourites to go through with England.

Please go to the Nielsen World Cup Data Hub to see our latest predicted knockout bracket, the full percentage chances of reaching each round and winning the 2022 World Cup and our latest world rankings.

Spotlight

Brazil is the favourite to win the 2022 World Cup with Gracenote’s updated predictions estimating a 24% chance of the team lifting the trophy on December 18. Spain and the Netherlands are the main challengers with both estimated to have a 9% chance of winning.
The 16 most likely teams to reach the knockout phase are (in order of likelihood); Brazil, Spain, Netherlands, England, France, Ecuador, Belgium, Portugal, Japan (replacing Germany from our pre-tournament forecasts), Switzerland, Saudi Arabia (replacing Mexico), Uruguay, Argentina, Denmark, Croatia and USA (replacing IR Iran).
The most likely quarter-finalists are now Brazil, Netherlands, Spain, France, Belgium, England, Ecuador and Portugal. However, Ecuador, the Netherlands and England cannot all reach the last eight.
The most likely semi-finalists are Brazil, Netherlands, France and Spain.
The most likely second round ties are (in order of likelihood); England v Ecuador, Belgium v Japan, Portugal v Switzerland and Brazil v Uruguay but, with four matches remaining in each group, none of these yet have more than 42% chance of happening.

Nielsen’s Gracenote has used its predictions engine to assess the chance of each potential second-round tie for the biggest teams in groups A to H. Seven of these eight teams have at least an 80% chance of reaching the second phase of the competition. Other teams are available on request.